It's been a while since we've had one of these. Not since Pahkitew. Seeing as how the first episode was leaked for all of us to view, I thought it would be time for me to think of team's chances based on what I've seen in the first episode and how these characters are presented. As the title suggests, massive spoilers are to follow. You have been warned.
18: Rock and Spud - The Rockers (Current Placing: 11th)
These two appear to be a surprising choice as they're current placing as of the first episode isn't too bad. But I think the next episode will be their ultimate downfall. Out of all of the teams, the rockers are the least complex. They rely on their stereotype for all of their lines, which is always a bad sign. There's nothing to develop either as all they are are plain rockers. This all leads to them coming across as prime fodder to me and there are other comic reliefs who clearly stood out more than them. You also don't see how they act when they compete either so the show doesn't find them interesting anyways.
17: Crimson and Onoui - The Goths (Current Placing: 14th)
WHO ARE YOU PEOPLE?!
Crimson and Onoui are pretty blank character. There were so many opportunities for them to have any liness and this doesn't ever happen. They come across as Beverly-type characters who are destined to be fodder. You don't see them having any moment throughout the first episode where their team is individual like most of the other teams, so the show doesn't really care too much for them either.
16: Laurie and Miles - The Hippies (Current Placing: 8th)
These two aren't really memorable at all. All they are are hippies with a few funny jokes which means they won't last TOO short. But they're still not deep enough to last very long. I can't say much about them because their 3 or 4 lines all have something to do with mother nature. They're fairly one-note.
15: Tom and Jen - The Fashion Bloggers (Current Placing: 9th)
Many (including their fans), believe Tom and Jen will be fodder of RR. While I can somewhat agree, I think their posh dynamic and fear of anything unsafe or unsanitary could mean that the staff would have a bit of fun with them for a while. It wouldn't make much sense for them to go far however considering their performance in something that will probably be the standard for Ridonculous Race. But I do think they'll last a bit longer than others might think.
14: Jerry and Pete - The Tennis Rivals (Current Placing: 18th)
These two are intense rivals with each other. They are always trying to one-up each other, are incredibly competitive, but are also old, and that effects their performance as seen with occasional leg cramps. With all those facts in mind, that is why they're definitely going early. There's already a rival team with much bigger chances, and unlike them, Jerry and Pete actually slow each other down. There's never a time where they do something fantastic and their age has a big effect on them.
13: Mickey and Jay - The Identical Twins (Current Placing: 16th)
So we have the Cameron prototype, IN TWIN FORM. But unlike Cameron, do Mickey and Jay have anything that really redeems their performance in challenges? They have neither brains nor brawn, and are hindered by Jay repeatedly slowing Mickey down. They are not underdogs for me as there's nothing really useful with them that can help them succeed. That said, I think they'll last around this length because they were one of the more prominent teams of the first episode.
'12: 'Mary and Ellody - The Geniuses (Current Placing: 12th)
This is an odd choice from me. Mary and Ellody aren't really seen competing often nor do they show any amazing performance. But they do however have a gimmick that will probably help them for a while. Mary and Ellody are geniuses. This pretty much promises that their intellect is what they'll use to get far. However, the fact that there is just 10 more who all have a higher "Outright winning" chance, I can only put these two so far.
11: Chet and Lorenzo - The Stepbrothers (Current Placing: 17th)
If you seen them compete in Episode 1, then you'd know that Chet and Lorenzo are one of the worst at the racing side of the competition. They fight a lot, they bicker, they're not athletic or strong at all, and they don't work well together in general. This is the show obviously showing that they are not fit for this competition. There's no healthy dynamic between them and they don't appear a lot, so all signs point to them going early.
However, what makes me believe that they won't go too early is that they just seem like characters who will reconcile after a while. Stepbrothers fighting is still a gimmick I don't think is worth lasting long but it is worthy of a shortlived storyline. But their challenge performance also ties into how I've placed them in a mostly fair position.
10: Stephanie and Ryan - The Daters (Current Placing: 3rd)
These two work so well together and there's no real problem with them as a couple. They're very similar in what they say and their placing as of Episode 1 doesn't surprise me at all. But it just seems a bit too perfect. Ryan even says that they've been "going steady." That seems like an obvious jinx for me. As they are both very outlandish people, a future major and conflicting argument between them will probably be their downfall based on what I have seen. But I could be wrong and they could last a bit longer.
9: Geoff and Brody - The Surfers (Current Placing: 15th)
This duo actually works very well together. If one is in need, the other is motivating them and trying to help keep them safe. They're friendly to each other, so their confidence and spirits are high, even when climbing many stairs. But despite all that, the reason I've put them here is for more harder to explain reasons than others.
I'll get the easiest part out of the way. We haven't seen Geoff compete since TDA. He was an early out in this season, which was right after his long run in Total Drama Island. And in case nobody else noticed, the other characters who have competed in three seasons only (Izzy, Harold, DJ, Leshawna) all have a pattern with when they compete, with the exception of Bridgette anyways.
Izzy: Lasts long (TDI), goes early (TDA), Makes it mid-way or close to it (TDWT)
Harold: Makes it mid-way or close to it (TDI), lasts long (TDA), goes early (TDWT)
DJ: Lasts long (TDI), goes early (TDA), Makes it mid-way or close to it (TDWT)
Leshawna: Lasts long (TDI), Makes it mid-way or close to it (TDA), goes early (TDWT)
As you can see, in whatever order, these characters lasted long, made the mid-point or at least nearly, and went early. Geoff has lasted long (TDI), and went early (TDA). With this pattern in mind, him and Brody will probably reach close to the halfway point. So patterns are one thing I've kept in mind for this.
What I've also kept in mind is the prediction made that I was the first person to make. And that is that Geoff and Brody are eliminated in Episode 15. There is 18 teams and 26 episodes, which means a few non-elimination episodes (e.g. Episode 1). I think the pattern will essentialy be; No elimination, followed by two elimination episodes. If you go with my pattern idea, you have a pretty balanced season.
Episodee 2 18th
Episode 3 17th
Episode 5 16th
Episode 6: 15th
Episode 8: 14th
Episode 9: 13th
Episode 11: 12th
Episode 12: 11th
Episode 14: 10th
Episode 15: 9th
Episode 17: 8th
Episode 18: 7th
Episode 20: 6th
Episode 21: 5th
Episode 23: 4th
Episode 24: 3rd
Episode 26: 2nd/1st
This shows that there is a way to equally balance 26 episodes in an 18 person cast. But why do I believe Geoff and Brody are going in Episode 15 of all choices? Because it's been said before that ONE cameo will occur in the fifteenth episode. And who better than the person Geoff outright states is in Australia? Bridgette. It's such a specific location for Geoff to mention. There's no reason for one of his first lines to be about her being in Australia unless it serves some big importance. So combining the cameo idea and the Bridgette mention, I think she could be how Geoff exits. He could easily be distracted from seeing her after so long which could be his ultimate downfall. I mean Bridgette's elimination when she also went AROUND THE WORLD did have heavy involvement with her relationship with Geoff so I'm thinking the same will occur with him. And I'm spending too much time on a prediction for a cartoon team pair I'm looking way too much into.
8: Emma and Kitty - The Sisters (Current Placing: 7th)
These two are very unbalanced with each other. One strives to win while the other is distracted easily and doesn't care too much about the competition. This is why I believe they will last slightly longer than the halfway point but probably no longer than that. They're straightforward in the pros and cons they have, which probably means a straightforward elimination.
7: Leonard and Tammy - The LARPers (Current Placing: 13th)
Surprised, right? Leonard being in RR was a shock to pretty much everyone. He was practically the least likely of the PI cast to even be in this season. But here he is. But why oh why would I put him in the Top 7 or even close to it? It's pretty simple. The only reason Leonard could have been chosen to be in this cast is if there was actually some big plans in mind for him. A veteran who was eliminated early returning not too long later and being eliminated early again has never happened, unless you count Blehral Zeke. But I highly doubt Leonard would go down a path like that. It's a wasted spot to bring back a fodder and eliminate them early again. When you have characters in PI with bigger personality than Leonard who could've been just as good for PI and Leonard is our only PI representative, it only means that there is something in mind for him. While his duo weren't really shown doing much, they didn't come across as useless as I thought they would be. And with Tammy around, I think Leonard's confidence towards challenges could be improved by a fellow LARPer who thinks the same way as him. I have no idea what he's doing in this season or how I should even feel about it, but it certainly means that he was an interesting choice.
6: Kelly and Taylor - Mother and Daughter (Current Placing: 10th)
This duo is just amazing, and not just in quality. They definitely seem like characters who will get past 2-3rds of the competition. Taylor is pretty villainous too so I think that proves how long they could last. And characters who are parodies of other characters usually last long in TD. They definitely stood-out a lot for me, which is another major factor for a character lasting long.
5: Noah and Owen - The Reality TV Pros (Current Placing: 6th)
These two come across to me as the main comic relief for this season. And that can have its perks which can mean longevity. It's sort of hard to explain why I think Noah and Owen will last this long but I think Noah's line of how much he wants to win pretty much seals the deal that they'll make it at least mid-way. Any other TD contestant who has said this have lasted a moderately long time. But that's not enough. I think the dynamic Noah and Owen brought stands out more than other characters. They just seem like a duo with many lines to come and the problems both unintentionally cause to others is an easy way of slowing the competition down.
4: Sanders and MacArthur - The Police Cadets (Current Placing 4th)
The stereotype these two have signifies that they will last an awful long time. They are a police/cadet force who are incredibly athletic. Out of all duos, they were one of the ones who I saw bouncing each other's personalities off each other the most often. The way they advance in the first episode was interesting which suggests that the season could have some plans for them. 4th is as far as I think they will go though because I don't think they will develop as much as the Top 3 will. But they do deserve the praise they've been getting and I'm looking forward to seeing them more.
3: Jacques and Josee - The Ice Dancers (Current Placing: 5th)
This is an interesting pair with a good backstory. Jacques ruined them getting a gold medal which just makes them have a complex enough personality to last long, which is also combined with Josee's major slyness about her. They're also incredibly competitive and bounce off any trouble they get in. An example can be seen with when they are crushed by garbage bins. They bounce this off immediately and move on. They don't have any inherently bad flaws besides occasionaly waving to fans, which is done at appropriate times while they are in the lead anyways. I predict their late elimination will result in Josee making a mistake which evens things with them. But the main reason I think they'll be 3rd? What's worse than a silver? Bronze of course!
1st and 2nd: Carrie and Devin (Current Placing: 2nd) vs Dwayne and Junior (Current Placing: 1st)
Based purely on the first episode, I believe that this is what the Final 2 will be. Carrie and Devin are pretty obvious contenders for many. They have the most development potential, have the most plot-type lines, and are set-up for the viewer from the get-go. Definitely the main characters of the season.
Dwayne and Junior are a bit tougher to explain. Out of all the pairs, for me, I can't really find anything about this duo that could slow them down in future, unlike all the other teams. They start off to an immediately fresh start. Of course, I could be completely wrong as this is only the first episode, but even if they're not Final 2, I still think they'll last a very long time. A desperate father/unenthusiastic child is an interesting duo to see with a lot of possibilities to explore. But more importantly, I went for these two because the other 16 options for my second choice have at least one major flaw to them.
And those are my predictions. Do you agree? Disagree? Have you not seen the episode and willingly spoiled yourself reading this? Do you think Kelly is a cool mom? Do you have a banana? I look forward to hearing from your thoughts and for RR which begins in... October?! UGITY UG.